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Extra info for Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting (National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Income and Wealth)

Example text

Also gratefully acknowledged is the financial and intellectual support received from the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Graduate School of Business of the University of Chicago. Naturally, responsibility for the expressed opinions and any remaining errors is exclusively the author's. 1. This is well illustrated in the early literature, which focused on the episodes of commercial crises, but it is also reflected in the timing of later, classical studies of the nature and causes of business cycles at large.

In any event, what we have is a number of ingenious but fragmentary constructs and a larger number of interesting ideas that may serve as building blocks for a more general theory. My purpose here is merely to introduce some such notions that seem to fit the facts at least some of the time. One old idea is that near, at, and above full employment the demand for labor and materials tends to outrun supplies, driving up wages and other input costs. At the same time, growth of capital and output may deter comparably large rises in prices of final goods and services.

Agriculture, which depends heavily on the weather, and production of naturally scarce resources). 3 Durable producer and consumer goods tend to have high conformity and large amplitudes of cyclical movements in production, employment, and inventories. The amplitudes are 3. This section is based primarily on studies of U. S. economic history, but many of the qualitative features of cyclical behavior summarized here are found as well in the data for other major industrialized countries with private enterprise and free markets: Mitchell 1913, 1927; Schumpe- 25 Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective much smaller for nondurable goods, and still smaller for most of the (nonstorable) services.

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