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Additional info for Who and How in Planning for Large Companies: Generalizations from the Experiences of Oil Companies

Example text

3. Projection of driver outcomes For each driver the planner should project two or three outcomes. thereby providing a range of possible futures. The range should not be set so wide as to guarantee every time that the actual future is incorporated within its bounds. Such breadth is likely to be too unwieldly to be useful as a planning tool. As a rule of thumb. the more important the issue is to the company and the more certain is the operating environment. the wider the range should be. On average.

CURRENT TRENDS IN SCENARIO-BUILDING Since its beginning a century ago, the oil industry has always been involved in politics; since 1973, oil companies have been in an even more constrained situation as far as political dimensions are concerned. One reason, of course, is the early 1970s oil crisis, after which all governments took an active interest in the business of the oil industry as they realized that the economic, geopolitical, and strategic consequences of energy issues had increased substantially.

Projection of driver outcomes For each driver the planner should project two or three outcomes. thereby providing a range of possible futures. The range should not be set so wide as to guarantee every time that the actual future is incorporated within its bounds. Such breadth is likely to be too unwieldly to be useful as a planning tool. As a rule of thumb. the more important the issue is to the company and the more certain is the operating environment. the wider the range should be. On average.

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