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Extra resources for Petroleum Refining, Volume 5 - Refinery Operation and Management

Example text

9). The Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, have abundant oil reserves but relatively small populations. Nigeria, Algeria and Indonesia are in the opposite position, with much smaller reserves but large populations. So, on the one hand, the priority of these latter countries is to maximise the financial exploitation of their resources in the short-term, which means they require a high oil price. On the other hand the objective of the former group, while seeking to generate sufficient income for their budget needs, is to maintain their market share and to avoid any rapid substitution of oil by other energy sources.

Over the short term, non-OPEC (excluding Russian) production has progressively increased. During the mid 199Os, the increase was of the order of 100 million tpa (2 million barrels/day) which left little scope for any increase in OPEC production and constrained that organisation from raising its global production quota. It will be obvious that such conditions militated against any increase in the price. In the medium term it is likely that the level of non-OPEC production will remain relatively stable.

Chapter 1. OIL AND ENERGY 15 2001. This has allowed some ordered increase in production quotas again and some increase in Iraqi production in exchange for humanitarian aid, at a time when Asian and global growth has resumed. The market has become very sensitive to small changes in supply and demand, to expectations of change, and to any signs of quota breaking amongst OPEC members. The current pricing mechanism is broadly satisfactory for the two main countries concerned, the United States and Saudi Arabia, but many consider that prices must be maintained well below $30/bbl to minimise the risks of excessive global inflation and of substitution of other energy sources for oil.

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