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Example text

These future events, which are not under the control of the decision maker, are referred to as the states of nature. The payoff, which is the outcome resulting from making a certain decision, and the probability of occurrence of a particular state of nature need to be estimated. This information is organized in what is called a payoff or a decision table. In this section, decision analysis using decision tables will be discussed first. Then, the classification of the decision situations will be introduced.

00 By comparing the old control valve with the new valve, we can see that purchasing the new valve now would mean an annual savings of $384 or ($2,166 -$1,782). If the old valve is depreciated out, only the salvage value of $400 could be allowed on capital recovery. I. C. Total equipment annual cost  < previous page < previous page page_156 page_157 next page > next page > Page 157 9 Risk, Uncertainty and Decision Analysis J. A. Al-Zayer, T. N. Al-Faraj, and A. S. Alidi King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals Dhahran, Saudi Arabia 56 57 This chapter is devoted to the introduction of the decision analysis framework approach to problem solving.

It is recommended for projects where the supply of capital is restricted and capital funds must be rationed to selected projects. V. V. ). 4. Any of the methods described in this chapter and proposed for economic evaluation in oil projects should be used with discretion and with due regard for its merits and demerits. Each index provides limited knowledge which is helpful in making project decisions. No major investment decision should be totally based on a single criterion. A more careful study should be considered for oil projects ending in different conclusions as a result of using different economic indicators.

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