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Extra resources for OECD Economic Surveys 2003-2004: Hungary

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This has possibly increased the perception of investment risks. A large budget deficit in 2002 (see below) is likely to have raised concerns about the commitment of the authorities to fiscal consolidation. In monetary policy, large interest rate and exchange rate fluctuations in 2003 have also boosted risk premia and foreign-currency hedging costs (see Chapter II). Looking forward, the challenging policy goals for euro entry and uncertainties in the policy strategy to achieve them are making investors’ interpretations of macroeconomic prospects in the run-up to entry difficult.

3). The key message of the recommendations called for a more medium-term outlook both in overall strategy and budgetary implementation. 6 And, in a welcome move, the authorities have explicitly incorporated the ESA95 deficit profile for 2004 to 2006 in the 2004 budget document, and stipulated multi-year budgeting for items relating to EU structural funds. However, the PEP budget profile tends to shift from one year to another, in a way that accommodates recent budgetary outcomes and so does not represent a very reliable benchmark.

OECD 2004 OECD Economic Surveys: Hungary 34 – Within the ±15 per cent band the authorities are aiming to sustain a narrow band which is considered to be compatible with inflation objectives and competitiveness considerations. The band was initially set at 250 to 260 forints (per euro). Nonetheless it should be stressed that, in accordance with EU rules, the authorities will not announce in advance their preferred ERM II central parity. 5 In the near term there are upward pressures on inflation and it is likely that monetary policy will have to be active in engineering disinflation in the run-up to the assessment period.

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