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Extra resources for Northern and Eastern Enlargement of EMU: Do Structural Reforms Matter?

Example text

Non-core supply disaggregates employment and nominal earnings. Separate blocks build up the government, personal and corporate sector flow accounts. 1 Consumption The equations take the form: ∆c = a1a2∆u – a3c-1 – a4 y-1 – (1 – a4)W-1 + a5 R-1 (A1) where c, y and u are consumption, real income and unemployment respectively, while W and R refer to the financial wealth-income ratio and real interest rates. These error-correction formulations appear to mimic consumption smoothing in a number of countries very well.

2004 11:33 Stránka 47 47 SUERF – Société Universitaire Européenne de Recherches Financières SUERF is incorporated in France as a non-profit-making Association. It was founded in 1963 as a European-wide forum with the aim of bringing together professionals from both the practitioner and academic sides of finance who have an interest in the working of financial markets, institutions and systems, and the conduct of monetary and regulatory policy. SUERF is a network association of central bankers, bankers and other practitioners in the financial sector, and academics with the purpose of analysing and understanding European financial markets, institutions and systems, and the conduct of regulation and monetary policy.

This block forecasts total rates of return on cash, stocks and, bonds. Private sector asset holdings have been broken down to personal and corporate components. In the public sector, general government debt is now identified for all countries, and both net overseas assets and net investment flows are derived by residual. Model variables are divided into demand and supply, core and non-core. Coverage of core variables is standard across all country models; non-core coverage varies across countries depending on data availability and country-specific requirements.

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