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Download PDF by E. T. Jaynes (auth.), W. T. Grandy Jr., L. H. Schick (eds.): Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods: Laramie, Wyoming, 1990

The tenth foreign Workshop on greatest Entropy and Bayesian equipment, MaxEnt ninety, was once held in Laramie, Wyoming from 30 July to three August 1990. This quantity includes the clinical displays given at that assembly. This sequence of workshops originated in Laramie in 1981, the place the 1st 3 of what have been to turn into annual workshops have been held.

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Extra info for Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods: Laramie, Wyoming, 1990

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Other fruitful statistical uses of entropy in econometrics have been mentioned. However, a secure and useful entropy-related "thermodynamic analogy" has not as yet been dominant in economics in spite of the pioneering work of Davis (1941) and Golan (1988 and 1989). J. N. ): 1979, 'Experimental Design in Econometrics', Annals J. of Econometrics 11, 205 pp. J. and A. ): 1988, 'Causality', Annals, J. of Econometrics 39 234 pp. J. W. Klein: 1979, Estimation Risk and Optimal Portfolio Choice, North-Holland, Amsterdam.

5 Infinitely many probability assignments 1r satisfy (6) and thereby reflect the information set [A, (a) J. The agent not only faces an unknown state of the world in the second period, an infinite number of probability assignments consistently represent here information. In this sense the agent acts under uncertainty rather than risk. Using the concept of a weak generalized inverse A+ (Kalman, 1976), a solution to (6) can be written as: (9) Here L represents an arbitrary J X S matrix chosen so that det[ALTJ f:.

In EI-Gamal and Sundaram (1989, 1990) we presented a framework where a Bayesian economist imposes priors on agent-priors and we then study the evolution of those economist beliefs. We showed that generically, the economist limit beliefs generically do not have point mass at any particular agent-belief, let alone the true rational expectations belief. We show, however, that in most cases where there is sufficient variability in the law of motion that the agents are trying to learn, in sequential models that are extensively used in the economic literature, the rational expectations hypothesis may indeed be justified on the basis of optimizing and optimally updating agents.

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