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Extra resources for Emerging Market Capital Flows: Proceedings of a Conference held at the Stern School of Business, New York University on May 23–24, 1996

Sample text

Cole and Kehoe refer to this interval as the crisis zone. Actually, the crisis zone shrinks as it increases because that maximum level of debt that satisfies participation constraint falls. As long as there is a nonempty crisis zone for 1t = 0, however, then it is possible to show that there are levels of the debt for which a crisis occurs, at least in the first period, with probability 1t for any 0 < 1t < 1. As long as Bt+l remains in the crisis zone qt satisfies qt = P(1-1t) and kt+l = k" and et = e" where (1- 9)[( 1 -1t + 1trx)f'(k") - b] = liP - 1 e" = (1 - 9)(f(k") - Jk").

The following three sections deal, in a more analytical vein, with policy options in the areas of exchange rates, money, debt management, bank behavior and capital controls. A final section concludes and offers some policy suggestions. 26 A. Velasco and P. Cabezas CHILE AND MEXICO: TWO STAR PERFORMERS? Chile and Mexico were often seen from the outside as 'twin' economies: two highly market-oriented economies that had liberalized internal and external markets, both went through successful stabilization, deregulation and privatization of state owned enterprises.

0004 new pesos per day. 2438 pesos per dollar. Much as in Chile, Mexican authorities also intervened within the band. Unlike Chile, this was undertaken to minimize fluctuations in the politically delicate period of NAFTA negotiation and ratification. 4 billion by the end of 1993. Over time, real appreciation became an increasing worry. Between 1990 and 1993 the nominal exchange rate depreciated by 17%, but because of the big disparity between domestic and international inflation the real exchange rate appreciated by 25-35%, depending on the actual index used.

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