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Extra info for Drought and the Human Story: Braving the Bull of Heaven

Sample text

Within the last 150 years three extended periods have been identified as drought prone and coinciding with persistent El Niño events of three or more years duration. 1905 with droughts on the Great Plains of USA, in north China, Indonesia, northeast Brazil, southeast England, central and eastern Russia, southern and eastern Africa, India and Australia. Second was the 1920s–30s with droughts again on the Great Plains (the original Dust Bowl era), in north China, northeast Brazil, southern Africa and Australia.

In the west they were identified as precipitation less than 60 per cent of the normal (for the season or ‘present water year’), while in the east they were identified as precipitation less than 85 per cent of normal over the previous six months. This suggested perhaps a smaller ‘buffer’ against drought in the east? ) The demand-type triggers included available water supply less than 60 per cent of normal or soil moisture below minimal crop requirements. This latter criterion would reflect previous farm management demands on soil moisture.

For the farmer or pastoralist it is an economic stress threatening the viability of the enterprise and their future livelihood or even survival. For the city water engineers it is also an economic and political stress with the potential to require added capital expenditure for increased storages, alongside criticisms of the apparent lack of past concern for future supplies. For politicians in opposition it may be a convenient stick with which to beat the government for supposed past mismanagement, or a means to lobby for financial support for one’s constituency, while for the government it may be a threat to its survival, a challenge to its welfare program or even an excuse to obtain international disaster relief (Glantz 1976, Heathcote 1986b).

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