Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World - download pdf or read online
By Sandrine Paillard, Sébastien Treyer, Bruno Dorin
How will the area manage to feed with reference to nine billion humans in 2050 and nonetheless continue the ecosystems? during this viewpoint, INRA and CIRAD introduced the initiative, in 2006, to enhance a foresight undertaking for analysing matters referring to the world's nutrients and agricultural structures at the 2050 timeline. This booklet offers a man-made presentation of the most conclusions that this foresight undertaking has yielded. First, it recapitulates the most statistical references for the interval 1961 to 2003, earlier than occurring to explain the Agribiom simulation instrument used to calculate nutrition biomass source use balances. situations at the 2050 timeline are then thought of: Agrimonde move is a trend-based state of affairs that bets on financial progress to feed the realm, in a context the place environmental safety isn't really a concern; by contrast, the belief in Agrimonde 1 is to feed the realm whereas holding its ecosystems.
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Additional info for Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050
The question of shrub land, savannah, etc. raises the same problem as in the category ‘Permanent meadows and pastures’”. 13 16 B. Dorin and T. L. 2 Variations in estimates of the earth’s land use (2003) Surface areas Total countries (1000 ha) With FAOSTAT Agribiom (world + ) (1) Crops and Total 1,551,518 1,529,043 plantations annual crops (arable land) 1,413,002 1,392,951 plantations (permanent crops) 138,516 136,093 irrigated area (total area 276,500 270,273 equipped for irrigation) (2) Pastures (permanent meadows and pastures) 3,415,704 3,325,988 (3) Forests (forest) 3,966,660 3,904,776 (4) Other emerged land (other land) 4,078,908 3,891,722 (5) Lakes, rivers & other (inland water) 429,780 426,910 Total (1) + (2) + (3) + (4) 13,012,789 12,651,530 13,013,621 12,651,530 Total emerged area (land area) Total (1) + (2) + (3) + (4) + (5) 13,442,569 13,078,440 Total area (country area) 13,443,401 13,078,440 Dif.
MA regions), • in such a way that the sum of the net trade balances (trad: exports-imports) per compartment i is nil on a global scale. The volumes of biomass are expressed in terms of food calories, which may be total calories but also calories only from carbohydrates, proteins or lipids. The first term of the equation represents the resources: regional biomass production plus or minus the net trade balance and net stock variations. For plant and aquatic biomass, regional production is represented as a function of the production area (ha) and its (partial) productivity in food (kcal/ha)24.
Also included are parameters describing, for both rain-fed and irrigated LUT, thermal requirements, growing period requirements, and soil and terrain requirements, applicable in tropical, subtropical, temperate, and boreal environments, respectively. 20 2 Agribiom: A Tool for Scenario-Building and Hybrid Modelling 19 ( marginally suitable), along with NS (not suitable land) and NAG (land for settlement and infrastructure). The exercise also led to the estimation of maximum potential yields for each of the combinations listed above.
Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050 by Sandrine Paillard, Sébastien Treyer, Bruno Dorin